Moscow University Press
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The monograph is addressed to academics, postgraduate students, and undergraduates, as well as a wide range of readers interested in the problems of modeling and forecasting the global dynamics of the development of the global community.
This monograph is a scientific report prepared by a team of scientists from Lomonosov Moscow State University (led by Academician V. A. Sadovnichy) for the 50th anniversary of the first report to the Club of Rome, "The Limits to Growth." The report reflects the views of Russian scientists on the fundamental changes occurring in the world in recent decades. The analysis of these changes is based on mathematical modeling of global socio-natural processes and the identification of patterns of global dynamics over a historical period of several thousand years.
The monograph presents a modeling methodology and specific mathematical models created using an integrated approach (including world-system, macrohistorical, and evolutionary approaches) to mathematical modeling, as well as a systems view of society, in which changes in one subsystem entail transformations in others. The changes that have led the world to its current state are analyzed; the main vectors of global transformations are identified; a forecast for the development of the main subsystems of society and the world as a whole (from the short term to the ultra-long term – up to 100 years) is presented; various development scenarios are presented, and recommendations for the transition to the most favorable scenario are provided.
