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ISBN: 978-5-19-011746-2
publication date: 2023
format: 70×100/16.
pages': 675

The book is intended for students, postgraduates and researchers interested in mathematical modeling and forecasting the long-term development of nonequilibrium and unstable processes of world dynamics.

Abstract

For the first time, the book systematically outlines the mathematical foundations of the coming digital economy (2020-2050), which represents the sixth great Kondratiev cycle (BCC) in the development of the world economy. The first part of the book is devoted to the analysis of the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation—cyclical theory of long-term economic development, which is most suitable for forecasting non-equilibrium and unstable economic development. Mathematical models for describing and calculating the trend trajectory of economic development within a single BCC are presented. A nonlinear model of macroeconomic dynamics is also presented, taking into account the interaction of trend and cyclical fluctuations, which most adequately describes this theory.

In the second part of the book, mathematical models are given that have shown their effectiveness in practice and are intended for short- and medium—term forecasting of crisis phenomena in the economy - bifurcation points and disruption in recession. Long-term forecasting models are based on an information model for calculating and predicting technological progress depending on the speed of information production. It is also shown that in the digital age, the main driving force will be the symbiosis of "man + intelligent machine (IM)", in which a person plays a leading role. The third part of the book presents examples of modeling and forecasting of national, regional and global projects implemented in the digital era: the Chinese megaproject "one belt, one road" and the Russian project to expand and modernize the high-speed railway network of Siberia and the Far East and their impact on the economies of the Eurasian continent; innovative breakthrough strategies in the development of the Russian economy; the revolutionary role of the widespread use of IT in the digital age to change the upward trend of global demographic dynamics to a downward one. All of these models were developed by the authors and verified for the fifth information BCC (1982-2018).

The book is intended for students, postgraduates and researchers interested in mathematical modeling and forecasting the long-term development of nonequilibrium and unstable processes of world dynamics.

To cite this article

Akaev A.A., Sadovnichy V.A. Mathematical models for forecasting the large digital cycle of the world economy development (2020-2050): monograph / A.A.Akaev, V.A.Sadovnichy. — Moscow: Moscow University Press, 2023. — 675, [5] p.: ill. — (Works of outstanding scientists of Moscow State University).

About the authors

Akaev Askar A.
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Doctor of Technical Sciences, **

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Doctor of Physico-Mathematical Sciences, **